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Mercury Music Predictions

What do Suede, M-People, Pulp and Roni Size all have in common? Answer: they’re all past winners of the Mercury Music Prize, the annual award for the best ‘alternative’ British act. What started as an alternative to the execrable ‘Brit Awards’, dominated by pop acts of the likes of the painfully unhip Phil Collins is now generally seen as a good indicator of the state of the British music scene - and this year is no exception. In fact, judging by this year’s list of nominees, the youth of Britain are almost exclusively listening to one thing: ‘Indie’.

In case you were wondering, the term ‘Indie’ is basically shorthand for boys (and occasionally, girls) playing in guitar bands that don’t aim towards the mainstream. The term is short for ‘independent’, and originally referred to the host of independent record labels (that is, not affiliated to the major labels, of which there are now only four) that the Punk movement left behind. And boys playing guitars is the one thing that dominates this years Mercury shortlist.

In terms of dance music, there’s only two acts that could really be put in this category: one is MIA (who featured on these pages just a few weeks back), a London-born daughter of Sri-Lankan refugees, whose music takes in Hip Hop, Ragga, Electro and the Indian-influenced sound of Bhangra. The other is ‘The Go! Team’, a Brighton-based five-piece who could be best described as ‘an indie band doing an impression of a dance act’. Their endearingly chaotic music is clearly inspired by early hip-hop and funk, but it’s hardly dance music as we know it.

The Mercury music shortlist has a fine tradition of throwing in ‘token’ acts from other genres: the inclusion of a jazz act and a folk performer to add a little variety to the list has almost come to be expected. So the inclusion of Polar Bear, a jazz-quartet, shouldn’t come as any big surprise. Nor should anyone seriously expect them to win – they’re only there to show how ‘open-minded’ the selection committee is. However, the real outsider in the shortlist comes from the world of folk - the 28-year-old Seth Lakeman, a folk singer from Yelverton in Devon , who produced his album with his brother and released it on his own record label. From playing at folk-clubs in front of ten or fifteen people, he’s suddenly found his name attracting international attention.

At the other end of the spectrum on this years list, we have Coldplay for their album X & Y - perhaps an inclusion more bizarre than that of Lakeman. Given that their latest LP sold 500,000 copies in its first week in the UK alone, it’s not as though they’re a band that’s in need of the recognition. If I got my way, Chris Martin and his nauseating celebrity wife Ms Paltrow should be put on trial at the Hague for ‘Crimes Against Music’, never mind walk away with an award under their arm. It’s Ok, though - once again, Coldplay are unlikely to win: in the past, the Mercury Music Prize has never gone to acts with huge commercial success and established careers behind them. And a good thing too.

So, who’s going to win? It’s a brave journalist who makes these kinds of predictions, which almost inevitably go horribly wrong. The band ‘Bloc Party’, touted by many critics as potential victors, are usually compared to last years winners, Franz Ferdinand – and for good reason. Not only do they have the same kind of angular, punk-funk inspired sound, but Bloc Party began to attract media attention only after their lead singer was able to hand over a copy of the band’s demo to the singer from Franz Ferdinand, back in 2003. However, the very fact that they’ve been landed with the label of ‘The New Franz Ferdinand’ is likely to mean that they won’t be getting the award this time round. Being (wrongly) perceived as a carbon-copy of last year’s hot property can only go against them.

The odds-on favourite at the bookies are in fact a group called The Kaiser Chiefs, again, a band made up of boys wielding guitars and playing spiky, radio-friendly indie-pop. They’re definitely the safest bet out of the twelve shortlisted groups. Be warned, though. Don’t come to me for help if you take out a loan from ‘Honest Bogdan’s Loan Firm’ and loose it all in a mad all-or-nothing gamble…

Having said all this, who is it that ought to win? My award definitely goes to the aforementioned MIA. Her chances of winning have, however, got considerably slimmer after the recent attacks on London . She’s one of the few artists to tackle subjects like terrorism and refugees in a way that departs from the no-brain tabloid approach to the subject, and it could all prove to be a bit too controversial at this time of hyper-sensitivity. Not only do her lyrics make reference to terrorism, but her recently released mix-tape is wittily entitled ‘Piracy Funds Terrorism’. Cheeky, glib and ironic it certainly is. But in the current state of hysteria, it might not go down too well with the judges. You’ll have to wait till the 6 th September to see whether I’m right or not. If the Kaiser Chiefs come out on top, you owe me 25% commission on your winnings...